Minggu, 31 Agustus 2014

[C636.Ebook] Ebook Download Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, by Cynthia M. Grabo

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Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, by Cynthia M. Grabo

This book and its message could not be more relevant today. After World War II, the U.S. Intelligence Community’s main objective was to understand the intentions and capabilities of the Communist threat. This meant a focus on the Soviet Union and its allies. Data on the number and capabilities of tanks, airplanes or ships in the inventory of the Warsaw Pact were not easy to come by, although somewhat easier to obtain than insight into the intentions of Communist leaders. A well-placed spy or satellite with a camera could yield some information but far from the whole picture. One of the most knowledgeable analysts who understood the importance of addressing both capabilities and intentions as a central part of the intelligence process was a woman—Cynthia Grabo. Intelligence analysis was dominated by men before, during, and after World War II. In this environment, Ms. Grabo stood out. Cynthia Grabo worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980. After graduating from the University of Chicago with undergraduate and graduate degrees, she was recruited by Army Intelligence shortly after Pearl Harbor. Although she served in various capacities during the war, from 1949 for the remainder of her career she specialized in strategic warning. Assigned to the interagency staff called the National Indications Center, she served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and for its successor organization the Strategic Warning Staff. It was during this time that Ms. Grabo recognized the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. The viability of the U.S. intelligence system depends on analysts, collectors, humanists and technologists, all of whom must be willing in their assessments and creative work to share risks with appropriate intelligence consumers. Commanders and policymakers also promote the viability of the intelligence system if they allow analysts to fail, yet to continue their work. As Ms Grabo points out, the Intelligence Community must avoid treating the warning function as only a by-product of other intelligence production. To “work’’ a warning problem is to anticipate events in their fullest political, military, economic, diplomatic and cultural context. If the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon came as a surprise because “nothing like that had ever happened before in the U.S.,’’ then the events truly echo those of December 1941. Now, the U.S. itself is highly subject to having indications analysis practiced against it. The historical experience of the U.S. in interpreting indications of conflict, as they are brought to light in this work, can help to make us more aware of the messages we may be conveying to potential adversaries in the international environment, and therefore preserve an element of surprise for ourselves. The 21st century brings a different world in many respects, but the principles of strategic warning analysis remain the same.

  • Sales Rank: #512687 in Books
  • Published on: 2016-01-18
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 10.00" h x .43" w x 7.00" l, .74 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 188 pages

About the Author
Jan Goldman is Professor of Intelligence and National Security Studies at Tiffin University. He has been an analyst and educator in the intelligence and academic communities for over 30 years. He is the founding editor of a series of textbooks for the intelligence profession, Security Professionals Intelligence Education Series SPIES (Rowman and Littlefield Publishers), and an academic journal focusing on ethics and intelligence. His most recent publications include War on Terror Encyclopedia: From the Rise of Al Qaeda to 9/11 and Beyond, and The Central Intelligence Agency: An Encyclopedia of Covert Operations, Intelligence Gathering, and Spies. He received his doctorate from George Washington University.

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Anticipating
By Solael
This is one of the required reading materials in my Intelligence Collections course at the American Military University. Though this is only the first week of class (8.6.13), we had to read the first 5 chapters (it is a Master's program). From the first 5 chapters, I can state that it is a wonderful and insightful read for those who 'just want to know' or those entering into the Intelligence Community.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Amazing historical assessment that is critically applicable today
By Joel Tapp
Regardless of how long you've been an intelligence professional, or if you're not part of the intelligence community at all, this book is a great reference to warning strategies and challenges. It was hard to keep reminding myself how old the original text was because of the pertinence of the topics and issues that Ms. Grabo brought up and explained. Excellent source!

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By Dr. JNE
GOOD RESOURCE BOOK.

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Jumat, 29 Agustus 2014

[W741.Ebook] Download Exploratory Data Mining and Data Cleaning, by Tamraparni Dasu, Theodore Johnson

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Exploratory Data Mining and Data Cleaning, by Tamraparni Dasu, Theodore Johnson

  • Written for practitioners of data mining, data cleaning and database management.
  • Presents a technical treatment of data quality including process, metrics, tools and algorithms.
  • Focuses on developing an evolving modeling strategy through an iterative data exploration loop and incorporation of domain knowledge.
  • Addresses methods of detecting, quantifying and correcting data quality issues that can have a significant impact on findings and decisions, using commercially available tools as well as new algorithmic approaches.
  • Uses case studies to illustrate applications in real life scenarios.
  • Highlights new approaches and methodologies, such as the DataSphere space partitioning and summary based analysis techniques.

Exploratory Data Mining and Data Cleaning will serve as an important reference for serious data analysts who need to analyze large amounts of unfamiliar data, managers of operations databases, and students in undergraduate or graduate level courses dealing with large scale data analys is and data mining.

  • Sales Rank: #1959884 in Books
  • Published on: 2003-05-09
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.65" h x .84" w x 6.38" l, 1.12 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 224 pages

Review
"Statisticians not conversant with today's statistical take on DQ should read this book…and be stimulated to do important research in DQ." (Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 2006)

"…uniquely integrates several approaches for data cleaning and exploration…" (Journal of Statistical Computation & Simulation, April 2004)

"...provides a uniquely integrated approach...for serious data analysts everywhere..." (Zentralblatt Math, Vol. 1027, 2004)

From the Back Cover
A unique, integrated approach to exploratory data mining and data quality

Data analysts at information-intensive businesses are frequently asked to analyze new data sets that are often dirty–composed of numerous tables possessing unknown properties. Prior to analysis, this data must be cleaned and explored–often a long and arduous task. Ensuring data quality is a notoriously messy problem that can only be addressed by drawing on methods from many disciplines, including statistics, exploratory data mining, database management, and metadata coding.

Where other books on data mining and analysis focus primarily on the last stage of the analysis procedure, Exploratory Data Mining and Data Cleaning uses a uniquely integrated approach to data exploration and data cleaning to develop a suitable modeling strategy that will help analysts to more effectively determine and implement the final technique.

The authors, both seasoned data analysts at a major corporation, draw on their own professional experience to:

  • Present a brief overview of the main analytical techniques used in data mining practices, such as univariate and multivariate summaries of attributes and their interactions including Q -Q plots, fractal dimension and histograms, nonparametric approaches incorporating data depth, and more
  • Provide numerous references to the related literature on clustering, classification, regression, and more
  • Focus on developing an evolving modeling strategy through an iterative data exploration loop and incorporation of domain knowledge
  • Address methods of detecting, quantifying (metrics), and correcting data quality issues that significantly impact findings and decisions, using commercially available tools as well as new algorithmic approaches
  • Use case studies to illustrate applications in real-life scenarios
  • Highlight new approaches and methodologies, such as the DataSphere space partitioning and summary-based analysis techniques

A groundbreaking addition to the existing literature, Exploratory Data Mining and Data Cleaning serves as an important reference for data analysts who need to analyze large amounts of unfamiliar data, operations managers, and students in undergraduate or graduate-level courses dealing with data analysis and data mining.

About the Author
TAMRAPARNI DASU, PhD, and THEODORE JOHNSON, PhD, are both members of the technical staff at AT&T Labs-Research in Florham Park, New Jersey.

Most helpful customer reviews

5 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Terrific intro to the issues
By Just a Customer
This is the best deep and practical introduction to data cleaning that I have seen. It provides an excellent overview of the practical problems in data cleaning, gives a good intuitive feeling for the core issues of outliers and robust statistics, and overviews of a good set of techniques for addressing data cleaning issues in a practical but relatively deep manner. It doesn't try to provide cookbook solutions, and instead points out the complexities and leaves the reader with a toolbox to work on tackling them.

The really interested reader will want to augment the book with some other reading, including (on the practical side) a book or website of tips on how to express robust statistics in SQL (the O'Reilly book on TransactSQL has good stuff), and (on the more statistical side) a deeper introduction to robust statistics (e.g. Rousseeuw and Leroy's Robust Regression and Outlier Detection).

In a future edition it would be nice to see more discussion of timeseries outliers, as well as an SQL cookbook that will run on commodity databases of modest size (which is the common case in practice, as opposed to the massive TelCo databases that the authors discuss).

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Sabtu, 16 Agustus 2014

[N834.Ebook] Fee Download Beneath the Surface: My Story, by Michael Phelps, Brian Cazeneuve

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Beneath the Surface: My Story, by Michael Phelps, Brian Cazeneuve

Just in time for the 2012 Olympics - prepare to peek into the mind of a champion with this newly updated edition of Michael Phelps' autobiography, Beneath the Surface.

In this candid memoir, Phelps talks openly about his battle with attention deficit disorder, the trauma of his parents' divorce, and the challenges that come with being thrust into the limelight. Readers worldwide will relive all the heart-stopping glory as Phelps completes his journey from the youngest man to ever set a world swimming record in 2001, to an Olympic powerhouse in 2008, and the most decorated Olympian in 2012. Athletes and fans alike will be fascinated by insights into Phelps' training, mental preparation, and behind-the-scenes perspective on international athletic competitions. A chronicle of Phelps' evolution from awkward teenager to media-savvy superstar, Beneath the Surface is a must-read for any sports fan.

  • Sales Rank: #34355 in Audible
  • Published on: 2013-01-03
  • Released on: 2013-01-03
  • Format: Unabridged
  • Original language: English
  • Running time: 495 minutes

Most helpful customer reviews

26 of 29 people found the following review helpful.
Not as advertised
By gailmcn
I was looking forward to reading Michael Phelps account of his London olympic experience, since it was prominently advertised on the cover. NOT!! This is the old "Beneath the Surface", with 5 pages of comments by the editor on Michael's 2012 Olympic performance attached to the front of the original material.

I already have "Beneath the Surface"; I didn't need a second copy. This edition has nothing more from Michael. It has only an unnamed editor's thoughts on the 2012 Olympics part of Michael's swimming career, including a comment about Ryan Locte that I am sure Michael would never have said, let alone authorized to be printed. Shame on Sports Publishing for misleading us into thinking we would be getting something more from Michael Phelps. The add-on isn't anything we didn't already know from reading the sports page during the Olympics.

If you haven't got the first edition of this book, then definitely buy it, but not for content on London, 2012.

8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Inspirational.
By Love My Library
This is a great book for swimmers who are actively swimming toward their goals. Good for teen and advanced preteen readers.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Insiring Story
By Richard W. Mink
Enjoyed this book very much. Michael tells an inspiring account of his journey to the gold medals and his relationship with his Mother. Highly recommend it!

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Rabu, 13 Agustus 2014

[K485.Ebook] Download PDF NorthStar Reading and Writing 3 with MyEnglishLab (4th Edition), by Laurie Barton, Carolyn Dupaquier Sardinas

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NorthStar Reading and Writing 3 with MyEnglishLab (4th Edition), by Laurie Barton, Carolyn Dupaquier Sardinas

NorthStar, Fourth Edition, a five-level series, engages students through authentic and compelling content and empowers them to achieve their academic and personal goals. The approach to critical thinking in both the Reading/Writing and Listening/Speaking strands challenges students to move beyond basic comprehension to higher-level analysis.

Conceptualized to promote critical thinking, NorthStar infuses analysis, synthesis, evaluation, and application throughout every lesson, not just in a critical thinking section like in other series.

Components: Print or eText

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continues to engage and motivate students through new and updated contemporary, authentic topics in a seamless integration of print and online content.

eText with MyEnglishLab — Offering maximum flexibility for different learning styles and needs, a digital version of the Student Book can be used on iPad and Android devices.

MyEnglishLab: NorthStar — Students use MyEnglishLab to access additional practice online, view videos, listen to audio selections, and receive instant feedback on their work. Teachers assign MyEnglishLab activities to reinforce the skills students learn in class and monitor progress through an online gradebook.

Teacher Resource eText — Each strand of NorthStar has an accompanying Teacher Resource eText with the following: digital Student Book, downloadable achievement tests, classroom audio, lesson planners, video activities, videoscripts, teacher's manuals, answer keys, and a downloadable placement test. Accessible through MyEnglishLab: NorthStar.

Classroom Audio CD — Listening and Speaking audio contains the recordings and activities as well as audio for the achievement tests. The Reading and Writing strand contains the readings on audio.

  • Sales Rank: #10028 in Books
  • Published on: 2014-08-03
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.70" h x .40" w x 7.80" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 212 pages

From the Back Cover
NorthStar, Fourth Edition, a five-level series, engages students through authentic and compelling content and empowers them to achieve their academic and personal goals. The approach to critical thinking in both the Reading/Writing and Listening/Speaking strands challenges students to move beyond basic comprehension to higher-level analysis.

Conceptualized to promote critical thinking, NorthStar infuses analysis, synthesis, evaluation, and application throughout every lesson, not just in a critical thinking section like in other series.

Components: Print or eText

Student Book with MyEnglishLab — Building on the success of previous editions, NorthStar
continues to engage and motivate students through new and updated contemporary, authentic topics in a seamless integration of print and online content.

eText with MyEnglishLab — Offering maximum flexibility for different learning styles and needs, a digital version of the Student Book can be used on iPad and Android devices.

MyEnglishLab: NorthStar — Students use MyEnglishLab to access additional practice online, view videos, listen to audio selections, and receive instant feedback on their work. Teachers assign MyEnglishLab activities to reinforce the skills students learn in class and monitor progress through an online gradebook.

Teacher Resource eText — Each strand of NorthStar has an accompanying Teacher Resource eText with the following: digital Student Book, downloadable achievement tests, classroom audio, lesson planners, video activities, videoscripts, teacher's manuals, answer keys, and a downloadable placement test. Accessible through MyEnglishLab: NorthStar.

Classroom Audio CD — Listening and Speaking audio contains the recordings and activities as well as audio for the achievement tests. The Reading and Writing strand contains the readings on audio.

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0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Austin
Brand New

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Highly Recommended
By Amazon Customer
Nicely organized textbook for non-English speaking students who want to improve reading and writing skills. Highly recommended.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By paw430
Pleased with product; it was "as advertised".

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[J169.Ebook] Download Ebook Seventy Weeks - The Historical Alternative, by Robert Caringola

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Seventy Weeks - The Historical Alternative, by Robert Caringola

This is the story of the only Messianic Divine time measure recorded in Holy Writ—Daniel’s Seventy Weeks. The truth of its interpretation begins with a journey back to the Protestant Reformation. It was during this period of Church history that this great prophecy’s commonly understood fulfillment was hermeneutically attacked and distorted. The confusing results of this theological assault are with us to this day and manifest itself in the teaching that a seven-year tribulation period is yet to come. This doctrine was birthed in Counter-Reformation Europe during the 16th century.

What was this doctrinal assault’s ultimate purpose? Who first taught it? Why was this new interpretation of Daniel chapter nine rejected by scholastic Protestant clergy for centuries? Who were its authors trying to protect? What is the true alternative which was believed by all of Christendom for over a millennium? How has this affected our perceptions and understandings of Christ’s Kingdom?

This book reveals the truth about Daniel’s 70th week. Its contents shatter the sand-built foundations of today’s popular 21st century Bible prophecy teaching, properly titled Futurism but commonly understood to be Dispensationalism!

  • Sales Rank: #468788 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2013-08-28
  • Released on: 2013-08-28
  • Format: Kindle eBook

About the Author
Author Robert Caringola holds a B.A. in History from the University of Arkansas, Little Rock, and was accepted into Phi Alpha Theta, a history honors fraternity. His ministerial office is that of a teacher in the five-fold ministry (Eph. 4:11). He has prepared for a decade to repair the breach in the interpretation of Daniel s seventy weeks. If God wills, this is the first of many systematic teachings to emerge on the subject of eschatology.

Most helpful customer reviews

13 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent for Understanding the Book of Daniel
By Abundant Life Ministries Press
Caringola did years of research before writing this book. In it, he takes you through the book of Daniel explaining the prophecies and their fulfillment in a very practical way.
Caringola writes from the historicist point of view (the view that the protestant reformers held). While we have moved away from the historicist view to a past-fulfillment (preterist) point of view of prophecy, his book does an excellent job with historical events that show how Daniel's prophecies were fulfilled historically through the rise of Babylon, Greece, Medo-Persia, and Rome. Ultimately, these prophecies set up the timing for the ministry of Christ (Daniel's 70 weeks - Daniel Ch. 9)
It is a excellent book for anyone wanting to move beyond their basic rapturist dispensational view of end times prophecy.
Note: it is not exactly a walk in the park to read and understand. You will have to do some thinking while you read.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Bold, Clear Teaching from a man who's done his homework!
By Gordan Runyan
Thank you, Robert Caringola, for this valuable service to Christ's church.

This is a great companion volume to his masterful work "The Present Reign of Jesus Christ" (which, sadly, I don't find available on this site.) That other work shattered the last vestiges of my then-chic evangelical partial Preterism.

This book, though short, is a much-needed history lesson that shows a) that Daniel's 70 Weeks did in fact precisely predict the Messiah's presentation to the Jews, to the year, and b) that Biblical eschatology has been hijacked in the West for the last two centuries by a theory that came with the specific intention of confusing the matter and drawing Protestants back to Rome. If you presently doubt either of those assertions, he's got the names, dates, book titles, and places right here.

I don't normally get chills reading theology, but I did this time, as the author spells out step-by-step how Daniel's prophecies were fulfilled even in minute fashion in the advance of history.

But sadly, I confess this view has a long, and uphill battle ahead of it, and one example is the three-star review that appears before mine, where the man confessed that he was rejecting the teaching of this book for no reason other than it conflicts with what he's been taught all his life. What happened to searching the Scriptures to see whether these things be true? Dispensationalism was merely wrong when it began: but it's now achieved the status of hallowed (encrusted) tradition in the churches. That makes it worse. However, I share the author's conviction here that Christ's truth and kingdom will defeat His rivals. There is yet time for Christ to be obeyed.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
A More Accurate Interpretation
By Joyce M. Laun
If one desires to attempt to understand prophecy, the prerequisite is to make the interpretation align with and fit into Scripture rather than distorting Scripture to fit one's preconceived theory. Robert Caringola has done this better than anyone else I have ever read.

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Senin, 11 Agustus 2014

[R921.Ebook] Get Free Ebook Egg: A Culinary Exploration of the World's Most Versatile Ingredient

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Egg: A Culinary Exploration of the World's Most Versatile Ingredient

  • Published on: 1600
  • Binding: Hardcover

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Sabtu, 09 Agustus 2014

[A884.Ebook] Fee Download All You Need Is Love: Inevitable #1.5, by Janet Nissenson

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Was the wedding of their dreams about to become a living nightmare?

For those who fell in love with Julia and Nathan in Serendipity, see how their story continues to unfold in this sweet, funny and sexy novella.

After overcoming all of the obstacles in pursuit of their happily ever after, Julia and Nathan are determined to plan their dream wedding in just six months time. But the path isn't as smooth as they had hoped, with bumps in the road that include Julia’s bossy twin sister, a moody bridesmaid, and Julia’s own obsession with perfection. In the end, will love truly be all she and Nathan need, or will they need a little help from their friends along the way?

  • Sales Rank: #782587 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2014-11-12
  • Released on: 2014-11-12
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
The Wedding
By SJF
I one clicked this book after immediately after I finished reading Serendipity. That being said you should read Serendipity prior to reading this wonderful book.

This book isn't only a wedding novella. It digs deeper into Nathan, Julia, their love and compatibility.

Can Julia plan a lavish dream wedding in six months? Nathan doesn't want to wait longer than that to make Julia his wife.

I don't want to spoil the story in my review. You will get a more detailed look at the supporting characters and their friends from Serendipity and want to one click Splendor when you finish this great book.

I can't wait to read more from this author.

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
What an amazing addition to this beautiful and sexy series!
By Bianca
You know that giddy, exciting feeling you get when you read and finish an amazing book? I get that way EVERY time I read this author’s work. Every time. All You Need Is Love was no different. I swooned, I teared up, I laughed. I absolutely could not put this one down!

All You Need Is Love is the story of Julia and Nathan’s wedding. It’s highly suggested you read the first book of the series before this one to truly understand the depth of their love. Their story is unique, beautiful, and powerful, and words cannot express my happiness that their story continued. The road to love and happiness was not an easy one, but worth every single moment.

Julia and Nathan are now engaged and have literally six months to plan a lavish wedding. This is Julia we are talking about! I did not expect anything less. The entire gang is featured in this series as we experiencing the journey of planning and Julia and Nathan’s wedding. Yes, including Julia’s feisty twin sister and all of their friends! The wedding planning is intense and overwhelming, but Nathan’s love and admiration for Julia is seen as he is nothing short of supportive to her during this stressful time. The love between these two is so deep. Nathan. Atwood. His love knows no boundaries. He loves with such conviction and truth. And this is felt through the entire story. This author never tells you about their love, she allows you to feel it.

If you think this is a simple wedding novella, think again. This story goes beyond that. The author’s writing continues to be flawless as she adds another layer to this series. She has a way of grabbing your heart and placing it with her characters. Every single one. She reminds me of my love for reading. You become immersed in the lives of her characters and never want to leave. The Inevitable series is definitely one of my favorite series and this addition solidifies why. This series is beautiful, heart felt, and consuming. The characters are genuine, real, and you’ll want nothing more than to have a group of friends in your life like them.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
"All You Need is Love, " by Janet Nissenson
By Lisa K.
"All You Need is Love," by Janet Nissenson, is 1.5 in the Inevitable Series. It's a novella but a pretty good sized one at about 150 pages. This is a bonus treat for anyone who enjoyed "Serendipity," the first book in the series. It's sweet, funny and sexy.

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